Sunday Silence's amazing Impact

The success of Saxon Warrior in this year’s 2,000 Guineas and his favouritism for the Derby has really put the focus on his hugely successful sire Deep Impact. True enough, the son of Sunday Silence has enjoyed intermittent success in Europe but the policy adopted in recent years by Coolmore to send some of their top mares to Hokkaido has taken interest in the Japan Triple Crown winner to a whole new level.

Deep Impact is an intriguing stallion but cannot be fully assessed through his European runners. A far clearer picture emerges when comparing his exploits with other Japanese stallions, no more so than the high standards set in Japan by his own sire, the phenomenal Sunday Silence. A near-black son of Halo, Sunday Silence first went before the public at the Keeneland July Sale in 1987 where he failed to sell at only $17,000. He again failed to find a new home as a two-year-old in training in California the following year. 

Whatever put off potential buyers certainly didn’t stop him reaching racing’s pinnacle. But for a defeat at the hands of Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes, we would have witnessed the first Triple Crown winner to go on to land the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a feat that would take another quarter of a century to achieve through American Pharaoh. Sunday Silence’s conformation also precluded a career at his owner’s Stone Farm where his sire had stood. 

Easy Goer thwarts Sunday Silence’s Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes.

America’s loss was definitely Japan’s gain. Before his death in 2002, Sunday Silence sired 169 Stakes winners which amounts to 11.9% of his runners. Considering that the ratio of black-type racing in Japan is very low compared with other countries, this percentage of winners to runners is a truly world-class achievement. And when we look at what Sunday Silence’s best son has achieved we can truly appreciate his sire’s numbers. 

So far, Deep Impact has sired 112 Stakes winners, which puts him on 10% Stakes winners to runners. Granted, he will have several as yet-undiscovered Stakes winners amongst younger runners, which will boost his ratio still further. By way of a modern-day comparison, King Kamehameha, one of Deep Impact’s most successful contemporaries, sires 5% Stakes winners to runners.

Perhaps the most astonishing fact when comparing Sunday Silence with his son is the opportunity figure. The Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence achieved his 11.9% Stakes winners to runners from mares that managed only 4% with other stallions. The Japan Triple Crown and Japan Cup hero Deep Impact has had access to far superior mares than his sire had. With all other sires, the dams of Deep Impact’s runners have produced 7.3% Stakes winners to runners, which is nearly three percentage points lower than what Deep Impact achieves. 

These figures are echoed by average earnings index. Sunday Silence scores 2.55 compared with his mares’ 1.71 from other sires. Deep Impact, meanwhile, is posting a massive 3.61 which is still ahead of his 2.66 comparable index. It is no mean feat to outscore such a high comparable index. After all, it is very difficult to improve the output from what are already elite mares. To put it in perspective the great Sadler’s Wells had an AEI of 2.98 from mares that recorded 3.02 with other sires and his 13% Stakes winners were produced from mares that bred 12% with other sires. 

So, on the basis of all these figures, we have to conclude that Deep Impact is getting to the same level as his great sire when it comes to the ability to produce elite Japanese racehorses, albeit from better opportunities, and one wonders what he’d have achieved if he were based outside Japan where access to black-type races is easier?

We also have to factor the potential negative effect of the overwhelming success of Sunday Silence in Japan where many elite mares now carry his blood and are therefore unavailable to Deep Impact as potential mates. It is no surprise therefore that the vast majority of Deep Impact’s 35 Group 1 winners are out of international mares imported to Japan.

Amongst his contemporaries, Deep Impact is absolutely dominant. Assessed by the percentage of 100-plus rated horses on the World Thoroughbred Rankings leaves us under no illusions as to the dominance of Shadai Farm’s superstar. His score of 18.4% is more than double that of all other sires with 150 or more starters that retired after 1998 with the exception of Kingmambo’s outstanding sire son King Kamehameha. 

With the exciting prospect of the undefeated Group 1 2,000 Guineas hero Saxon Warrior to look forward to this year in Europe, we can expect to see more non-Japan foaled runners on our racecourses in the years to come. Then there’s the prospect of another unbeaten colt, Danon Premium, attempting to win the Japanese Derby having missed the Japanese 2,000 Guineas due to a bruised foot. I wonder what are the chances of an Epsom Derby-Tokyo Yushun double for Deep Impact this summer?