The next in line for Dubawi?

There is no question that Dubawi has made an impact as a sire of high-class stallions. Night of Thunder’s 2025 Champion Sire title tells us as much, as do the bright starts at stud made by Zarak, Too Darn Hot and New Bay. This spring he has no fewer than seven sons at stud priced at €20,000 and above, ranging from the €200,000 of Night of Thunder to the €20,000 of Ghaiyyath, his sire’s 133 Timeform top-rated progeny. Whereas Night of Thunder, Zarak, Too Darn Hot and New Bay survived their first commercial test by attracting more elite mares at higher fees in their fifth year, the jury is still out on Ghaiyyath. 

In common with Zarak, New Bay and Too Darn Hot, Ghaiyyath made his first start at two over a mile and graduated to win the Group 3 Autumn Stakes on his third and final outing of the year to earn a Timeform mark of 111p. A setback robbed the Dubawi colt of most of his Classic season and he didn’t get back on the racecourse until September when he won the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange over 2,000m, a performance Timeform rated 119. His four-year-old campaign comprised just four starts, but Ghaiyyath showed marked improvement to land his first Group 1, earning a Timeform rating of 130 when winning the 2,400m Grosser Preis von Baden, setting him up for an ultimately unsuccessful tilt at the Arc.

Ghaiyyath records a career best Timeform rating of 133+ for his demolition of the field in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes

However, he went on to deliver five top-class performances as a five-year-old in 2020, winning his first four races, including the Coronation Cup, Eclipse and International Stakes, earning ratings of 131+, 127+ and 133+ from Timeform. His exuberant front-running style lit up the Covid summer of 2020 and it was too much for Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck in the Coronation Cup, for Enable in the Eclipse, and for Magical in the International, the latter being won by three lengths. It was these three impressive performances that earned Ghaiyyath top billing on the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings for 2020 with a rating of 130.

It is impossible to say what part his prolonged absence from competition during his Classic season played in the demand for first-season nominations. History now tells us that only Pinatubo among the 2021 intake of new sires attracted more Stakes horses and Stakes producers than Ghaiyyath, so it is reasonable to suggest that this son of Dubawi has had enough quality among his first book of mares on which to make an informed opinion as to his ability as a sire. 

His first crop have just turned four and while his count of Stakes horses, which stood at 12 at the end of 2025, is a long way short of others at the same point in their careers, such as European leaders Frankel (27) and Dubawi (26), it is more than many respected sires that have a similar stamina index to him. Moreover, his Stakes winner count (5) after two years with runners is higher that the likes of Study of Man, who has since gone on to greater things. To put this in context, Galileo had only nine, Australia and Teofilo eight, while Zarak had seven at the end of their second year with runners.

Ghaiyyath’s son, Opera Ballo, scores his first Group 1 success in the Jebel Hatta at Meydan. He looks sure to play a significant role in the top European ten-furlong races this summer

Perhaps more impressive is the fact that Ghaiyyath has sired a horse as classy as Opera Ballo. His top-rated runner so far with a Timeform mark of 124, Opera Ballo is a horse with plenty of ability at shorter distances, having won two Listed races at a mile, before scoring two victories over nine furlongs in Dubai, first at Group 2 level and then at Group 1 level in the Jebel Hatta. He’s sure to play a significant part in the top European mile-and-a-quarter races this summer. Other Stakes horses by Ghaiyyath include Stanhope Gardens (Timeform 115), plus Bedouin Prince (114) and Gethin (111p), all good enough to have been Stakes winners by now. It is also significant that his yearling average improved significantly in 2025 and it will also help that he’s attracted books in excess of 150 mares every year since he retired to stud and maintained a rarely seen consistency of class among his mares in the first five years at stud.

Of course, Opera Ballo is not the only horse advertising his sire’s merits recently. In Australia, his first-crop son Observer, like Opera Ballo racing in the Godolphin blue, won the prestigious Group 1 Australian Derby over 2,500m at Flemington. And after a mid-season break, he returned to land the Group 2 Autumn Stakes over 1,400m and the Group 1 Australian Guineas over 1,600m at the same venue. In his recent Australian Guineas victory he showed great versatility and tactical speed which will be invaluable information for breeders when Observer eventually retires to stud. 

Observer, who recently added the Group 1 Australian Guineas to his victory in the Group 1 Australian Derby, has shown great versatility and tactical speed

Ghaiyyath has three more Listed winners from his first Australian crop and two more that have been placed at Group 2 level. What is striking about this success is that he’s achieved it all from just 40 runners. Therefore, his four Stakes winners give him a top-class strike rate of 10%, which easily outscores the level of success achieved by his mares’ runners with other sires. Moreover, from his better mares, his Stakes-winner strike rate from runners is 15%. This success has not gone unnoticed by yearling buyers who have paid an average of $208k for his third crop yearlings this year, a big increase on last year’s average of $72k and his first-crop average of $78k. Ghaiyyath stood at $27.5k for his first four seasons in Australia and we can expect a higher fee and significantly more mares for his fifth crop than he has covered in any season so far.

GHAIYYATH's NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BLACK-TYPE HORSES